In the short term the credit crisis/banking crisis/FINANCIAL COLLAPSE is going to be painful with countless layoffs, consolidation in the industry and the knock on impact to consumers. People struggling to get mortgages or having debts called in unexpectedly.
In the medium term I expect we'll have a re-alignment towards less confusing/risky/near imaginary products. Less financial engineering, more pragmatism. That doesn't make it any better for the people I know who work in the city, few of whom are the highly rewarded traders, most of whom just do IT.
However in the long term we'll forget the events of 2007-20??. We're human, and we'll go back to syndicating debt. They'll be called something like "Bundled Piles of Joy" (Collateralised Debt Obligation will be a tainted term, and you know, these BPJs are really, really very different). Some people, the old timers of the city who didn't burn out by 30, who are the 20 somethings now, will raise concerns. Point out that this was a bad idea.
These people, who are my peers, will be called dinosaurs. The new financial engineers of the time will snigger at their backward views like. "Shouldn't we have our own assets rather than borrowing them constantly". Having bundled up sufficient piles of joy, the engineers will grab the bonuses and run. And sooner or later we'll be back where we are today.
Not a glowing endorsement of humanity knowing that we've been through this before or that we'll go through this all again. Kind of depressing to realise that your peers will be the "dinosaurs" someday too.
Unconnected thought
A few years back LloydsTSB was called a bit boring. Not international enough. You know, a bit too retail UK focussed. Not corporate enough. Now it's the only bank with the cash to rescue HBOS.
I was snowboarding NZ. I fell down a reasonable amount, kind of bruised myself (ribs were the worst) - but it was fun. In fact most fun I've had injuring myself in a long time.
New Zealand was very pretty, though you do have pay to leave. As well as paying to leave you have to tell them "in which country do you intend to reside for 12 months next". They don't have an "I don't know" box to tick.
Because readers, I don't. I just said UK, it seemed easier.
Paperwork shouldn't defeat you like that.
